Look, Ma, Look At The Horsey!

I've been avoiding saying much in the way of direct horserace coverage of late, mostly because my predictive abilities have proven to be significantly inferior to those of Princess the football game-picking camel. I have realized that I, lacking the information of political insiders, but believing myself to possess a modicum more humility and common sense, ought to be smart enough to realize that trying to predict the outcome of a tight political race is as foolish as trying to time the stock market.

But, after tonight, I do feel obligated to jump in with a little bit of roundup coverage.

According to Nick Beaudrot (who ought to be Cajun, if he's not. I'm envisioning Wilford Brimley's Uncle Douvee from Hard Target shouting 'Nic-o-las! Nic-o-las! Get your littol Beaudrot ass over he-yah!'), Obama won every major demographic in today's election except for older women, even achieving marginal victories in demo groups like 'all women', and 'high school grads'. Since those are, traditionally, his weakest areas, I think that shows the upwards momentum of his trajectory. A 17-point win in a state where the Clinton campaign chose to actually try, unlike the 'if we don't try, it doesn't count' strategy they employed along the Chesapeake last week, is definitely a meaningful win.

Now, especially in the Feiler-Faster era in which we live, the two weeks between today and Texas/Ohio are, essentially, three eternities, plus a really long time on top. There's enough times for things to change, un-change, re-change, and un-re-change by then. So I'm not foolish enough to speculate about what the long-term prospects for the campaign are.

The only two things I think I can say without a doubt are first, that Obama is trending upwards, with polls moving in his direction in Texas (haven't seen any recent Ohio polls), and second, that we have not seen the last of the Clinton campaign. If they go down, they will go down fighting, and pulling no punches. I don't think Clinton will really go dirty; she knows that the best she could achieve there would be the Pyhhric victory of winning the nomination, only to lose the general. But you will certainly see the campaign do its best to besmirch Obama's fairly saintly reputation.

It's already beginning; see these posts by Kevin Drum for more info.

But, still; a good night for this Obamaniac.